Prigozhin's mutiny wasn't a failure
As things stand, the Wagner rebellion achieved many of its goals, and irreversibly altered the political balance in Russia
On June 24, through brute force, Yevgeny Prigozhin dragged Vladimir Putin’s establishment to the negotiating table. After assuming control of Rostov-on-Don without shedding a single drop of blood, Prigozhin had advanced northward to within 200 km of Moscow, shot down several Russian military helicopters and aircraft, and made a mockery of Russia’s domestic crisis response apparatus in the process. The fact he eventually stood down was inevitable; his only other option would have been to drive all the way to the gates of the Kremlin itself, which would have almost certainly resulted in failure. Today, Prigozhin made his first public statement since his exit from Rostov on Saturday, in which he stated that his goal all along had been to hold onto his trump card, the tens of thousands of Wagner mercenaries serving under him, after the Russian Ministry of Defense implicitly ordered Wagner to subordinate itself to the Russian military by the end of June.
It is impossible to know how genuine Prigozhin’s latest pronouncements are, or how closely this end result lined up with his original plans for his rebellion. Distinguishing reality from slight-of-hand in Russia is never an easy task. But what much of the analyses around the mutiny seem to have underappreciated is that, any way you slice it, Prigozhin stood up to some of the most powerful actors in Russia, successfully resisted their efforts to bring Wagner to heel, and altered the entire playing field of Kremlin politics. As a consolation prize for Putin, Prigozhin agreed to call off his march and to go into exile in Belarus — but after accusing him of treason, Putin’s camp said they would drop all charges against him and all the Wagnerites who actively participated in the uprising. On Sunday, the head of the State Duma Defense Committee Andrey Kartapolov went further, stating that Wagner did “nothing wrong” when it marched into Rostov, and claimed that any efforts to dismantle Wagner would be a disservice to the Russian military effort in Ukraine.
It remains unclear what will ultimately happen to Prigozhin or to Wagner. Russian state media claimed today that Prigozhin is still under investigation despite Putin’s promises over the weekend— but Wagner remains intact, and at least for now, it looks like Prigozhin did exactly what he needed to do to retain both his hard and soft power while degrading Putin’s enormously. As national security analyst Dmitri Alperovitch noted on Twitter, in the hours before Putin’s speech denouncing Prigozhin, no one among the Russian establishment came out in support of the Kremlin besides two lone generals, Surovikin and Alekseev, and shortly after it took place, Putin’s own plane appeared to have left Moscow for St. Petersburg. As Wagner troops occupied Rostov, locals greeted them with handouts of food and water, before later cheering them on and taking selfies with Prigozhin himself as he and Wagner departed the city.
This is not what defeat looks like, and for a rebellious warlord to receive this kind of treatment and to make such an impact is not just a humiliation for Putin, but also a continued, long-term security risk. For perhaps the first time since Putin eliminated liberal opponents to his rule like Boris Nemtsov in 2015, Prigozhin has stepped in as a viable alternative to Putin, and exposed dangerous cracks within Russian society’s support for the Putinist establishment. For him to even get this far, Prigozhin would’ve likely had to have at least some support within the Russian political brass, as many observers assumed he did given his ability to get away with his frequent tirades against his two archenemies, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and General Gerasimov, throughout the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. On top of that, the operation was planned well in advance according to US intelligence, meaning that Prigozhin and his allies had plenty of time to consider all possible eventualities before launching the rebellion, and likely understood that his chances of deposing Putin outright were unlikely. Prigozhin is no Einstein, but he is also a political survivor who has navigated the halls of power throughout Putin’s rule. The fact Prigozhin took this drastic step showed not only that he thought it was the best choice he had at his disposal, but that even if he never reached Moscow, he would be able to achieve significant objectives in his game of chicken with the Kremlin.
This weekend’s rebellion came to an end because a deal between Prigozhin and Putin was preferable to a protracted military confrontation on Russian soil for both parties. But while some reporting seems to have interpreted this as an “all clear” signal, this insurrection should be viewed not as a standalone event, but as the first episode in what will likely become a multi-phase power struggle not only between Prigozhin and Putin, but also between Putin and other challengers who will inevitably come out of the woodwork. As observers make guesses about Prigozhin and Wagner’s future, I doubt this will be the end of Wagner — the group has just shown that it is capable of undermining core elements of Russia’s national security unless it gets its way, a reality that has remained unchanged since Saturday. For many loyal Wagnerites, joining the regular Russian military is simply unthinkable, and as leaders like Kartapolov have stated, their value to the Russian war effort may be too great to sacrifice. In a telling move, as of today, several Wagner recruitment centers in Novosibirsk and Tyumen in Siberia have reportedly reopened after being shuttered in the wake of Prigozhin’s rebellion, according to Meduza.
Nevertheless, for obvious reasons, no one can truly know what will happen next. Prigozhin surely understands that he will now have to watch his back for as long as he lives, and Putin will do everything in his power to try to eliminate Prigozhin and the Wagner threat once and for all. But strange things appear to be happening behind the scenes, and despite the Kremlin’s efforts to sweep this incident under the rug, nothing has truly returned to business as usual. The Ministry of Defense published a short video this morning showing Shoigu inspecting Russian forces which appears to be old, and Gerasimov has yet to make any kind of public appearance since the weekend’s events. Any potential change to either of their positions could be interpreted as a win for Prigozhin and Wagner’s ability to steer high politics in Moscow.
Interestingly, the Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel GREY ZONE published an image on Sunday showing Prigozhin with his finger to his lips and Russian caption that reads “Plans love silence” — a clear allusion to a Ukrainian media campaign launched ahead of the start of its counteroffensive this month.
Nothing’s over till it’s over, it seems.
